Javad Ahmadi - MSc. Environmental Engineering Research Center, Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology
Davood Kahforoushan - Assistant Professor. Environmental Engineering Research Center, Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology
Khaled ZoroufchBenisi - Associate Professor. Environmental Engineering Research Center, Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology

Urmia Lake, the second hyper saline lake of the world, has encountered lack of water and environmental issues in recent years and the danger of its drying threaten the region and its population.The aim of the article is to represent a model which relates the lake water level to its effective parameters such as precipitation, evaporation, water behind dams, and the previous year water level.Proposed model based on evolutionary polynomial regression could be used to evaluate salt marshes produced in the region in recent years. Proposed model shows that until 2015 the lake water level will fall below 1269 meters and the lake will become completely dry till 2030. Results show that the most effective parameter on Urmia Lake drying is regarding its high surface area to its depth. However, if we leave out this characteristicinherent to it, the main reason would be dams’ constructions in the way of Urmia Lake basin

Urmia Lake, Evolutionary polynomial regression, Modeling, Water level