Regional Drought Resiliency Quantification: A Case Study

Drought is a natural hazard that causes considerable damage annually all over the world. Recent climate variability and the impact of climate change have affected drought frequency and intensity in many parts of the world. One of the most desirable factors in any region facing drought, is for the system to withstand the consequences and return to the functioning state. This could be referred as drought resiliency. Preventing the occurrence of drought is impossible, but by using adaptive measures, the adverse impacts can be mitigated. The purpose of this study is to provide a framework for assessing resiliency in the face of drought in a region. Drought is divided into four categories of meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and social-economic. The general approach in this study is to classify the characteristics of the system based on these categories. Then, the relative importance of them regarding to drought intensity and consequences is determined using multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). Aharchay watershed, Azarbaijan, Iran is selected as the case study for this research. In this study, by estimating the actual values of the system characteristics and the weight of different criteria, an index is suggested for evaluating the system's resiliency in terms of factors such as robustness, rapidity, resourcefulness, and redundancy. The results show the significant value of quantifying draught resiliency in a region in order to make strategies for regional preparedness.

Keywords:

Drought , Resiliency , MCDM , Regional Assessment , Climate Variability