The prediction of the number of passengers of airplane companies active in International Airport of Tabriz by Markov model

Today, transportation industry and namely air transportation is of great importance as it provided the development of the trading and exchanges and caused some changes in economical, social and cultural aspects.Considering the basic role of air transportation industry as one of the main factors in the development of the countries, the current study is done regarding the identification of active airplane companies about the movement of the passenger and the number of flights of Tabriz airport during 2014-2015.The number of passengers in these companies is predicted by Markov model in 2016.The companies with the maximum and minimum number of the passengers in this airport are determined and finally the share of each of the companies is achieved in the long-term. The study population of the current study was active airplane companies in Tabriz airport consisting of 12 airplane companies.The results of the solution of the equations showed that of 12 active airplane companies in Tabriz international airport. The stable conditions showed that the first air plane companies (Iran air), third (Aseman), fifth (Kish air), seventh (Turkish air) and ninth (Saudia) can reach the permanent condition and continue their activity in long-term. The results showed that exit flights after 12periods (Year) and entrance flights after 10 periods (Year) reach the stable condition because they lose their passengers gradually.

Keywords:

Markov model , Stable conditions , transition probabilities matrix , transfer matrix