Javad Ahmadi - MSc, Environmental Engineering Research Center, Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz, Iran
Davood Kahforoushan - Assistant Professor, Environmental Engineering Research Center, Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz, Iran
Esmaeil Fatehifar - Professor, Environmental Engineering Research Center, Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz, Iran
Khaled Zoroufchi Benis - PhD Student, Laboratory of Energy Science and Engineering, Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Background: Urmia Lake, the second largest hyper-saline lake of the world, has experienced lack of water and other environmental issues in recent years. Now, there is a danger of the lake drying out, which will affect the region and its inhabitants. This study aimed to present a model which can relate the water level of the lake to effective factors.Methods: Parameters that influence water level, such as precipitation, evaporation, water behind dams, and the previous year’s water level, were considered in the modeling procedure. The proposed model, based on evolutionary polynomial regression, can be used to evaluate salt marshes produced in the region in recent years.Results: Results show that the high surface-area-to-depth ratio of Urmia Lake is most influential on its drying; however, omitting this characteristic as an inherent one, the main cause is the construction of dams on rivers in the Urmia Lake basin.Conclusion: The proposed model predicts that by 2015, the water level of Urmia Lake will fall below 1269 m, and by 2030, the lake will dry out completely

Urmia Lake, Water level, Air pollution, Health impacts