Future scenario planning for Iran’s oil development plan

Energy resources in Iran consist of the fourth largest oil reserves and the second largest natural gas reserves in the world. In recent years, Iran’s energy demand has increased by %602. Oil and natural gas constitute %41 and %58 of this amount, respectively, and are the primary energy sources for Iran. At present, due to political reasons, the investment trend does not go over well. Based on the Fifth Development Strategy, Iran needs $200 billion of investment in the country’s first industry (i.e. oil), and given the objectives of the perspective document, the country needs more than $500 billion investment during the next 15 years. This paper examined Iran’s energy status. Afterwards, oil future scenarios which developed by Research center of Iranian parliament, have been analyzed. Then four scenarios that express different modes of production and consumption are developed, namely: Thunder, Behemoth, Snowman, and Poor Addict. Finally, a comprehensive analysis for achieving the secure and sustainable future on the geopolitical, Geo-economic and Geo-cultural situation is presented.

Keywords:

Iran , Scenario Planning , Energy , Oil