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Comparison between individual and hybrid approaches for estimating fuzzy time series

عنوان مقاله: Comparison between individual and hybrid approaches for estimating fuzzy time series
شناسه ملی مقاله: ICMI02_187
منتشر شده در دومین کنفرانس بین المللی مدیریت و مهندسی صنایع در سال 1394
مشخصات نویسندگان مقاله:

S.M.T Fatemi ghomi - Full professor, Faculty of Industrial Engineering & Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology-Tehran Polytechnic, Tehran, Iran
S Jaberi - Faculty of Industrial Engineering & Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology-Tehran Polytechnic, Tehran, Iran
M Hajian-Heidary - Faculty of Industrial Engineering & Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology-Tehran olytechnic, Tehran, Iran
Moeen Sammak Jalali - PhD Candidate, Faculty of Industrial Engineering & Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology-Tehran Polytechnic, Tehran, Iran

خلاصه مقاله:
Forecasting is one of the methods that helps decision makers to decide better about future. One of the best tools for forecasting is statistical methods. There are several criteria to measure the performance of forecasting methods that one of the most important of them is analysis the forecast error variance. Forecast combination methods are proposed to improve the accuracy of the forecasting. On the other hand, in practical applications, usage of fuzzy logic because of the vagueness and uncertainty is necessary. In the last decade, forecasting based on fuzzy time series has been used but the combination of fuzzy time series techniques to improving forecast accuracy has not been utilized. In current paper, to forecast linear process, fuzzy regression and other forecasting methods such as fuzzy double exponential smoothing are applied. After that combination of these three methods the forecast is utilized. The results imply that the forecast error variance in hybrid method is improved. These results are proved for a numerical example.

کلمات کلیدی:
Fuzzy time series, Combination of forecasting methods, Fuzzy regression

صفحه اختصاصی مقاله و دریافت فایل کامل: https://civilica.com/doc/513349/