Evaluation the Exchange rate uncertainty impact on Tehran stock fundamental metals industry index

Stock Exchange is one of the main pillars of the country's capital market; the basic metals’ groupis the most original and influential group in the Tehran stock market. In this paper, the relationshipbetween exchange rate uncertainty and stock index of basic metals groups of Tehran StockExchange is analyzed within the years of 2003-2013 using the monthly data. For this purpose thevector autoregression (VAR) model is applied. The results show that there is a significant positiverelationship between the exchange rate uncertainty and the Tehran Stock Exchange index of basicmetals group. As a result, policies should be developed in such a way that the process of exchangerate volatility is integrated and moderated so that while creating an environment of confidence forinvestment the stock market boom is provided.

Keywords:

exchange rate , Tehran Stock Exchange , index of basic metals