A New Method for Estimation of Mean and Variance of Beta Distribution in PERT NetWorks

This paper develops a new method for estimating the mean and variance of activity duration random variable in PERT-type networks. It is assumed that the activity durations have beta distribution. This method proposed the flexible formula for the above mentioned estimations. This formula depends on beta distribution parameters (pessimistic time (a ), most likely time (n ) and optimistic time (b)) and minimizes the relative error of most likely time estimation.

Keywords:

PERT , Beta Distribution , Activity Duration , Mean , Variance