Mohammad Valipour - Department of Water Engineering, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran

The most pressure on renewable water resources is related to the agricultural sector and irrigation has the maximum water withdrawal in agriculture. Therefore, the aim of this paper is an estimation of pressure on renewable water resources by irrigation in 2035 and 2060 using the study of agricultural water management during 1962 to 2011. For this purpose, all necessary information was gathered from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Among all presented data in the FAO database, 10 indexes were selected (due to more importance and more availability for all the regions in the world). The selected indexes were analyzed and amount of area equipped for irrigation to cultivated area (10th index) was estimated by three different scenarios and using the other 9 indexes. Then, using these data, the value of pressure on renewable water resources was estimated. The minimum change related to the third scenario by 2035 (11.4%) and the maximum change related to the first scenario by 2060 (66.6%). Thus, pressure on renewable water resources will increase in the future and it can be considered in many different sections.

Macroeconomic policies, Optimum decision, Regression analysis, Sustainable development