Breast cancer risk assessment based on Gail model: preliminary results from a Isfahan Cohort study

Introduction: If breast cancer is found early, effective early treatment can be applied before cancer spread outside the breast. Women who are at high risk of breast cancer should be detected and offered more intensive surveillance. Gail model is an interactive Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. The aim of this study was to apply Gail model to Isfahan cohort of women to estimate women’s risk of developing invasive breast cancer. Methods: This prospective cohort study was conducted on 11136 women aged 20-69 years old recruited at Breast Cancer Screening Centre of Hope Hospital from 2008 to 2016. This initial result was based on 5492 records which verified and Gail model applied to them. Gail model is based on age at counseling,age at menarche,age at first live birth,number of previous breast biopsies, and number of first-degree relatives with breast cancer. The risk score above 1.66 is defined as high risk. Numerical data were presented by mean±SD and categorical with number & percent using SPSS20.Results: The mean age at counseling was 38.9±9.1;age at menarche 13.5±1.5;age at first live birth 21.2±4.9; with history of biopsy293(4.2%) and with family history of breast cancer421(6.2%). About 92.3%(5071) of women classified as low risk(Gail_Score<1.67) and 7.7%(421) as high risk, mean Gail risk score=1.27±3.78,95%CI:1.17-1.38, Min=0.003, Max=57.57).Conclusion: The Gail model predicted 7.7% of women at high risk of developing invasive breast cancer. The Gail model is recommended to use for screening purposes as the model is a standardised mathematical models based on epidemiologic data, and easy to apply.

Keywords:

Breast Cancer , Risk Assessment Model , Cohort Study