Project Time and Cost Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Artificial Neural Networks

The aim of this study is to present a new method to predict project time and cost under uncertainty. Assuming that what happens in projects implementation which is expressed in the form of Earned Value Management (EVM) indicators is primarily related to the nature of randomness or unreliability, in this study, by using Monte Carlo simulation and assuming a specific distribution for the time and cost of project activities, a significant number of predicting scenarios will be simulated. According to the data, an artificial neural network is used as an efficient data mining method to estimate the project time and cost at completion.

Keywords:

Project management , Earned value management , Estimate at completion (EAC) , Monte carlo simulation , Artificial neural network