Crowd Simulations and Determining the Critical Density Point of Emergency Situations

Objective: In modern societies, crowd and human mass gatherings are recurrent. Simulation of people’s behavior in places of crowds can remarkably assist planningand management of mass gatherings especially in emergency situations. Emergency evacuation of people in mass gatherings and crowds requires prediction anddetermination of population behavior pattern. Methods: This study aimed to determine the crowd pattern of population and critical density point in grand bazaar of Kerman. Proceeded to collect the required data by census method using a questionnaire, which includes questions about age, gender, weight, height, accurate current position and the escape direction of people present in the bazaar after the accident. In order to determine the critical density point, height and weight data were placed in s=AWT IMAGE and the outer surface body of all the individuals in the bazaar was calculated. Simulating the crowd was conducted using flow-based modeling and according to data obtained from distributed questionnaires. In this way, using the equation (Flow rate = Density * Speed), the flow rate was determined and by the help of the Sketch up prove: 8 software, movement of eachperson based on 4 directions and the general flow rate were simulated in 3D environment of Kerman bazaar. Results: Based on these findings, the population critical density point in Kerman bazaar would be 6112people.In case of accident, the critical density in Kerman bazaar will be created in about a minute and ten seconds after the event. Conclusion: Regarding estimation of critical gathering point and the crowds ‘stimulation in this study, it seems necessary to identify and solutions provide for reducing the risk of disasters .Thus, suggest that the researchers conduct studies to design safe and secure emergency evacuation of Kerman bazaar as well as proper planning for better and faster access of aid squads to the victims at this location

Keywords:

simulation , critical density point , emergency