Bagher Pahlavanzade - Departments of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Farid Zayeri - Departments of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Taban Baghfalaki - Departments of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
Omid Mozafari - Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran

Objective(s): It has been proposed that lipid markers may predict cardiovascular events; however, their effect may vary depending on the type of cardiovascular disease. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of lipid markers on death from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in competing risks setting.Materials and Methods: Participants included 2502 women and 2020 men, age 40 years or older from Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. The association between total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglyceride (TG), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) with hazard and cumulative incidence of CHD and stroke was investigated using cause-specific hazard and sub-distribution hazard models. Statistical analyses were performed using risk regression and cmprsk package in R 3.3.2.Results: One standard deviation (SD) increase in TC and LDL-C increased the hazard of CHD death by 1.42 (CI=1.07,1.89) and 1.41 (CI=1.04,1.93), respectively. 1-SD increase in TG increased the cumulative incidence of CHD death increased by 1.94 (CI=1.02,3.75) in women. Other risk factors were not associated with the hazard and cumulative incidence of CHD in women, men and the total sample. In addition, none of lipids had a significant effect on the hazard and cumulative incidence of stroke in men, women and the total sample.Conclusion: The associations of lipid components on CHD death were modified by gender. TC, LDL-C and TG were independent predictors of CHD mortality in women. Furthermore, death due to stroke changes the association of lipid markers with CHD mortality.

Coronary Heart Disease, Cholesterol HDL, Cholesterol LDL, Stroke, Survival analysis