comprehensive GIS-based modeling approach for risk mapping of dengue vector, Aedes albopictus

Background: Nowadays, the rapid expansion of dengue vector Ae. albopictus around the globe has been warned by various papers.Objectives: This study was aimed to determine the weight and priority of some meteorological and climatic variables on Ae. albopictus presence. In addition it was done to determine risk areas with the presence possibility of this species in southeast of Iran.Materials and Methods: Weight and priority of eight parameters including precipitation, relative humidity (RH), temperature, land use\ anthropization, altitudes, wetlands, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and distance from border were obtained by the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Expert Choice.11 software. Then final predictive model and risk map including the areas with the possibility of presence of Ae. albopictus were developed by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS) and Spatial Analyst of ArcMap.Results: Among effective variables on presence of this species, anthropization had the maximum weight, followed by temperature, altitude and precipitation. The Southern and coastal regions had the greatest risk of Ae. albopictus presence as well as more urban areas linked by main roads.Conclusion: Previous collection of Ae. albopictus from the risk zones can confirm the efficiency of the final risk map and suggest for monitoring system. However, a widespread field work is necessary to assess the establishment status of this vector

Keywords:

Aedes albopictus , GIS , Modeling