Economic Factors Affecting Milk Consumption among Iranians - A Time Series Study

Over the past 40 years, per-capita milk consumption in Iran has faced many ups and downs.In recent years, milk consumption in Iran has been ever decreasing. Since milk intake eitherin excess or shortage can lead to a set of nutritional, economic, and environmental effects,it is important to scientifically study the behavior of the dairy market. While many factors(including individual preferences) affect consumer choices at the level of the individualand the family; in this study, the macroeconomic factors affecting the aggregate milkconsumption of Iranian society have been considered. By employing Eviews 10, aneconometric model was developed to study time series related to dairy consumption. 13national Consumer Price Indices along with Minimum Wage, Urbanization Rate, LiteracyRate, GINI coefficient, and Employment Rate were examined. Multiple breakpoints wereidentified across a 43-year time period. Using dummy variables, four distinct regimes werespecified through the duration of the study. Correlations and Granger causalities were alsoinspected for each regime separately.

Keywords:

Econometric modeling , Iran , Milk consumption , Dairy products , Demand , Supply