Pricing of Futures Contracts by Considering Stochastic Exponential Jump Domain of Spot Price

Derivatives are alternative financial instruments which extend traders opportunities to achieve some financial goals. They are risk management instruments that are related to a data in the future, and also they react to uncertain prices. Study on pricing futures can provide useful tools to understand the stochastic behavior of prices to manage the risk of price volatility. Thus, this study evaluates commodity futures contracts by considering Ross (1995) one-factor future pricing model as a function of spot price, Gibson and Schwartz (1990) two-factor futures pricing model as a function of spot price and convenience yield and finally Schwartz (1997) three-factor futures pricing model as a function of spot price, convenience yield and instantaneous interest rate by adding jump to stochastic behavior of commodity spot price. For this purpose, it is assumed that spot price follows Jump-diffusion stochastic process with exponential probability distribution of jump domain. Finally, commodity pricing future relations in three basic models are presented as a function of above factor(s) and jump parameters by using Duffy-Pan-Singleton approach.  JEL Classification: G12, G13

Keywords:

Futures Contract , Pricing , Jump-diffusion , Exponential Distribution