Projecting the Shortages and Surpluses of General Practitioners in Iran

Introduction: Due to the necessity of careful planning in the human capital of health and the effect of imbalance of general physician supply on economy and health status, this study aimed to estimate general practitionerschr('۳۹') (GPs) demand and predict general practitioners’ shortage and surplus in Iran. Method: This study was an analytical and applied study conducted at the national level for Iran in ۲۰۱۹ using ARIMA (۵,۱,۱) method for projecting supply and Vector Error Correction (VEC) models for projecting demand with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), out-of-pocket, aging and hospital beds variables. Data were annual time series from ۱۹۹۱ to ۲۰۱۷, extracted from the statistical yearbooks issued by the Statistical Center of Iran and the World Bank database. The required models and tests were estimated by Eviews ۱۰ software at a ۰.۰۵ significance level. Results: The general practitioners’ elasticity to GDP, aging, and out-of-pocket were ۰.۳۳, ۱.۷۷, and -۰.۸۱, respectively. GDP per capita (۰.۱۱), aging (۰.۱۴), and the number of hospital beds (۰.۰۰۰۷) had a positive impact, and out-of-pocket payments (-۰.۰۰۰۱) had a negative impact on demand for GPs in Iran. Also, from ۲۰۱۸ to ۲۰۳۰, the mean GPs demand (۰.۲۳) was higher than the mean supply (۰.۲۰), and there was a shortage of GPs in these years (۰.۰۳). Conclusion: Iran is facing a shortage of GPs by ۲۰۳۰. Therefore, there are suggested policies for increasing the admissions capacity at medical universities, maintaining and preventing the migration of physicians with appropriate incentives, establishing rules, and providing job satisfaction for physicians.

Keywords:

General practitioners , Health workforce , Projection , Supply , پزشکان عمومی , نیروی کار سلامت , پیش بینی , عرضه