Techniques of prediction optimization to achieve an efficient supply chain and investigation of the relation between inventory fluctuations and service level

In today's global competition, a variety of products must be made available to the customer at the requestof the customer. Customer demand for high quality and fast service has increased pressures that did notexist before, so companies couldn’t do everything alone. Activities such as supply and demandplanning, materials procurement, production and product planning, product maintenance service,inventory control, distribution, delivery and customer service, all previously performed at the companylevel, are now the level of supply chain (demand chain - value chain) has been transferred. The keyissue in a supply chain is the coordinated management and control of all these activities. Supply chainmanagement is the phenomenon that does this in a way that customers can receive reliable and fastservice from products with desirable quality and at minimal cost. There are a variety of criteria forevaluating supply chain performance. But the indicators that are mostly used to monitor the supplychain performance include cost indicators and performance indicators. This study focuses on the effectof whipping and how to reduce this effect by improving forecasting techniques to achieve an efficientsupply chain as well as the relationship between inventory fluctuations and service level.

Keywords:

prediction optimization , supply chain , Bullwhip effect , inventory fluctuations , service level