Generation expansion planning in Iran's power system using probabilistic production simulation

In this paper generation and transmission expansion planning of Iran's power system using equivalent load duration curve is studied. To this end, equivalent load durationcurve for the whole system and each electricity region are calculated for years 2005 and 2010 using the expansion of the probability random distribution series. The criteria loss of load probability, expected energy not supplied, and capacity shortage are computed using equivalent load duration curves. Equivalent load duration curves and the above-mentioned criteria are calculated using convolution method to validate the results. Finally, generation and transmission expansion planning of the system is studiedconsidering the computed criteria.

Keywords:

cumulants , edgeworth series , equivalent load duration curve , expected energy notsupplied , generation expansion , gram-charlier series , loss of load probability , transmissionexpansion