A scenario analysis through fuzzy cognitive map modeling for sustainable development goals survival in the context of the COVID-۱۹ pandemic: a case study of Iran

To respond to the urgent call for preventive action against COVID-۱۹ pandemic implications for societies, this research is carried out. The main aim of our research is providing a new insight for the effects of the newly emerged restrictions by COVID-۱۹ on the SD Goals (SDGs). This research applied a qualitative approach for supporting the SDGs achievement post-COVID in Iran, as a developing country in the Middle East, in two phases. In the first phase, using a fuzzy Delphi method, the SDGs affected by COVID-۱۹ were identified. In the next phase, a fuzzy cognitive map, as a qualitative system dynamics modeling, was conducted to specify the key interconnections among the SDGs post COVID- ۱۹. Finally, three strategies including focus on people in vulnerable situation , support for industrial units and small and medium-sized enterprises, and national aggregation to Fight COVID-۱۹ were examined. As a result, different scenarios associated with the three proposed strategies were tested based on the identified interconnections among the SDGs to reduce the potential negative effects of COVID-۱۹ crisis on the achievement of the SDGs. The results provide a decision support for stakeholders and policy makers involved in SD action plan.

Keywords:

COVID-۱۹ , Sustainable Development goals , ۲۰۳۰ Agenda for SD , fuzzy cognitive map , fuzzy Delphi method , scenario analysis.