The probability of informed trading and stock liquidity

This study examines the effect of the probability of informed trading on the stock liquidity. The methodology relies on linear regressions using the method of ordinary least square is used for a sample of manufacturing companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period ۲۰۱۲-۲۰۱۶. We use five measures of stock liquidity that include Turnover Ratio measure, Amihud illiquidity measure, Bid-Ask spread measure, Free Floating ratio measure, Liquidity Index. As for information asymmetry between informed and uninformed traders, we utilize the variable Probability of informed trading (PIN). The results of the regression analysis indicate that Probability of informed trading has a positive and significant effect on the Turnover Ratio measure and Amihud illiquidity measure, but Probability of informed trading has no significant effect on the Bid-Ask spread measure, Free Floating ratio measure and Liquidity Index, suggesting that stocks with higher probabilities of information-based trading, PIN, have higher Turnover Ratio and Amihud illiquidity measure. These results highlight the informed trader’s role in defining the level of liquidity on the Tehran Stock Exchange. This paper provides novel evidence on the influence of Probability of informed trading (PIN) on stock liquidity in an emerging market context.

Keywords:

information asymmetry , Probability of informed trading , stock liquidity