An Analysis of the Impacts of COVID-۱۹ and Freight Cost on Trade of the Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road

The Coronavirus Disease ۲۰۱۹ (COVID-۱۹) epidemic in China has been controlled periodically. However, we are now in a period of rapid outbreaks worldwide, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in all countries is still tense. Due to the COVID-۱۹ outbreak, objectively, international trade has a higher risk of infection. At this stage, the prevention and control of the epidemic have become a responsibility for the countries worldwide. This study aims to measure the potential economic impacts of COVID-۱۹ on trade volume between China and One Belt One Road countries (OBOR). The economic impacts assessments of (COVID-۱۹) on trade are based on a Gravity model and speed of convergence (SC) method by changes in trading behavior and cost of (COVID -۱۹) outbreak by in affected countries. The results reveal that potential trade values between China and European Union (EU) will drop by ۱۱.۵%, China and East Asia and Pacific (EAP) by ۶,۷%, China and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) by ۸.۹%, China and South Asia (SAR) by۱۵%, China and Europe and Central Asia (ECA) by ۹%.

Keywords:

OBOR Countries , COVID-۱۹ , Gravity Model , Freight Cost.