Reliability assessment on natural gas pressure reduction stations using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)
Publish place: International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application، Vol: 5، Issue: 1
Publish Year: 1401
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: English
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_IJRRS-5-1_004
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 30 آبان 1401
Abstract:
Gas pressure reduction stations play a key role in the timely and safe supply of natural gas (NG) to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Accordingly, system reliability analysis should be performed to prevent potential failures and establish resilient operations. This research proposed a reliability assessment approach to natural gas pressure-reducing stations using historical data, statistical analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Historical data are employed to establish the probability distributions of the system and subsystems in gas stations. Then the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is conducted to assess the goodness-of-fit for the developed distributions. Bayesian network (BN) is utilized to develop a system failure causality model. Finally, we performed MCS to precisely predict the failure rate and reliability of stations and all subsystems, such as the regulator, separator and dry gas filters, shut-off valves, and regulator. This research provided numerical findings on the reliability indicators of pressure reduction stations which can be used to improve system performance and, subsequently, the resilience of NG pipelines.
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Authors
ali karimi
Department of Occupational Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Esmaeil Zarei
Department of Safety Science, College of Aviation, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ, ۸۶۳۰۱, USA
rajabali hokmabadi
Department of Occupational Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
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