The socio-demographic determinants of urban household demand for road travel in urban areas

KGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The demand for travel is increasing along with the development of the urban city. Since its establishment in ۱۸۹۰, the same situation has been replicated in Uganda, particularly in Kampala, the capital city. The city has grown tremendously, and this has spilled over to neighboring towns. Road transport carries ۹۹ percent of the traffic in Kampala Capital City, causing massive congestion on city roads. Increased traffic could result from residents of the city or visitors from other parts of the country. Thus, understanding societal travel behaviours of city dwellers is necessary for better planning and policy guidance. This study examines the socio-demographic determinants of urban household demand for road travel in Kampala City. METHODS: Data from the Kampala Capital City Authority’s transport and household travel habits survey were used in this study. A sampling plan developed by the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area Transport Master Plan Project was followed. Households were drawn from parishes stratified by residential typology using a simple random sampling method. Based on the social economic groupings, a proportional sample of ۱۹۰۶ households was drawn. Data on household characteristics, personal attributes of the household head and travel habits data were obtained. Given the observed over dispersion, a Negative Binomial Regression was estimated.FINDINGS: The results show that household daily demand for travel increase with the size, age, and education level of the head. Compared to households with ۱-۳ members, results indicate a significant increase in the difference between the logs of the daily trips taken by ۰.۳۲۹ and ۰.۵۸۷ for households with ۴-۶ and above ۶ members, respectively; the older the household head, the higher the difference between the logs of expected number of trips, compared to households with heads aged ۱۵-۲۴ years, those whose heads are aged ۲۵-۳۴, ۳۵-۴۴, ۴۵-۵۴ and above ۵۴ years, the difference of the logs of the expected number of trips taken increases significantly  by ۰.۰۷۶۹, ۰.۱۴۹, ۰.۱۶۳ and ۰.۲۱۲ trips, respectively; household heads working in the private sector reduces the difference in the logs of daily travel by ۰.۰۶۵۹ trips when compared to the public sector; the more educated the household head, the more trips taken daily. Households with a private car make fewer trips than those without.CONCLUSION: Sensitization programmes for reducing unnecessary and avoidable travel and family size are required. Uptake of distribution and or redistribution polices for development activities and investments to other urban centers and regions.

Keywords:

Negative binomial , Socio-demographic , Travel Demand , Road travel , Urban Household