Modeling Valuation of Companies Based on Technology and Innovation a Case Study on Gamron Petro Industry Co.

Achieving reality-based valuation of innovative companies is an undeniable challenge for the founders and investors of innovation. The purpose of this study is to model a logical, innovative and scalable approach to valuing innovative companies. In this way, by selecting the Earning Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) of the studied innovative company, as a state variable and simulating its future income flows based on Arithmetic Brownian Motion (ABM) standard and using the framework of Real Option Valuation (ROV) method, the valuation model was created. The accuracy and efficiency of this model was proved by extracting the data of the fiscal years from ۱۳۹۲ to ۱۳۹۵ of Gamron Petro Industry Exchange Company and comparing the results of the model with the market value of the company in Tehran Stock Exchange. On the other hand, in order to test the effect of real interest rate on the model results, by defining three different values of real interest rate, the effect of real interest rate fluctuation on the model evaluation results was investigated. Thus, the high flexibility of the model using the method of real option valuation is fully reflected in the research results.

Keywords:

Valuation of Companies , Real Options Analysis , Real Options Valuation , Structural Model , Project Investment Analysis , ارزش گذاری شرکت ها , تحلیل اختیارات واقعی , ارزش گذاری اختیارات واقعی , مدل ساختاری , تحلیل سرمایه گذاری پروژه