Assessment of a ۴۷۵-year Scenario Earthquake Loss for Residential Buildings in District ۲ of Tehran Municipality, Iran

Tehran, the capital city of Iran, is a dense city with a more than ۱۲ million dynamic population. The city is located next to the seismically active zone of the Alborz Mountains, with many active faults surrounding it. Because of Tehran's significant economic and political function at the national level, earthquakes in this city or its vicinity could largely affect the whole country. Together, these factors can explain how important the identification and assessment of seismic risk in this city can be. In this study, an OpenQuake-engine has been employed to quantify the earthquake risk of one of the districts of Tehran. Initially, a probabilistic hazard assessment was carried out for Tehran; then, after disaggregating the result of a ۴۷۵-year PSHA, the main contributing earthquake scenario was determined as the hazard input. In addition, an exposure model was developed for the residential buildings of the study area, indicating building typology and locations. Further, a set of fragility and vulnerability functions that are consistent with the exposure model was selected from past studies. Finally, the seismic loss for residential buildings in district ۲ of Tehran municipality was assessed in the event of the ۴۷۵-year hazard scenario. The results show the intensity and spatial distribution of damages and losses in various subdivisions of the study area. Such analysis can provide essential information for disaster management decision-makers to prepare for possible future events.

Keywords:

Earthquake losses , Seismic hazard assessment , Exposure , Vulnerability , Seismic Risk , Tehran