People’s Concerns With the Prediction of COVID-۱۹ in Bangladesh: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Introduction: The coronavirus disease ۲۰۱۹ (COVID-۱۹) has become a public health concern, and behavioral adjustments will minimize its spread worldwide by ۸۰%. The main purpose of this research was to examine the factors associated with concerns about COVID-۱۹ and the future direction of the COVID-۱۹ scenario of Bangladesh. Methods: The binary logistic regression model was performed to assess the impact of COVID-۱۹ concern in Bangladesh. Based on data obtained through online surveys in November ۲۰۲۰ and to predict the next ۴۰ days daily confirmed and deaths of COVID-۱۹ in Bangladesh by applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Results: The study enrolled ۴۰۰ respondents, with ۲۵۳ (۶۳.۲%) were male, and ۱۴۷ (۳۶.۸%) were female. The mean age of respondents was ۲۵.۱۳ ± ۵.۷۴ years old. Almost ۷۰% of them were found to be concerned about the COVID-۱۹ pandemic. The result showed that respondents’ education level, knowledge regarding COVID-۱۹ transmits, households with aged people, seasonal flu and HD/respiratory problems, and materials used while sneezing/coughing significantly influenced COVID-۱۹ concerns. The analysis predicted that confirmed cases would gradually decrease for the ARIMA model while death cases will be constant for the next ۴۰ days in Bangladesh. Conclusion: The current study suggested that knowledge about COVID-۱۹ spread and education played a vital role in the decline of COVID-۱۹ concerned. A particular program should focus on creating an awareness of the disadvantages of concerns about the COVID-۱۹ pandemic by augmenting knowledge about COVID-۱۹ spread, enhancing Education in Bangladesh.

Keywords:

COVID-۱۹ , MERS-CoV , SARS , Quarantine , Education , Health