Market Estimation of the Telecom Network's Equipments Based on Cobb-Douglas Demand Forecasting Model

The goal of this paper is to estimate the capital investment in telecom network's equipments, by using Cobb-Douglas model to predict the number of subscribers for the next years of Iran. By presenting a master plan for "fixed telephony", "mobile telephony", "data", "transmission", and "access" networks, the required equipments and also the capital investment amounts are estimated. Because of the importance of operations' support systems (OSS) in the next generation networks (NGN), the amount of required capital investment for deployment of network management systems (NMS) and customer care and billing systems (CCBS), as main parts of OSS, are calculated for the next three years in this paper. To reach these estimates, the total number of subscribers in the mentioned networks is forecasted for the period ۱۳۸۷-۹۰. This assessment shows an approximate investment of M۷۰۱۷ for the five mentioned networks, as the total telecom equipments' market in the country. The required investment for OSS is estimated to be M۶۸۸ in the same period. An approximate investment of M۳۹۹ and M۲۸۹ is needed for NMS and CCBS, respectively.

Keywords:

Telecom Network , en , Equipment Market , Operation Support System