Estimation of Social Capital Index in Iran Using the Fuzzy Logic

The present paper aims to estimate the level of social capital and its trend in Iran and determine the main components and variables of social capital in Iran from ۱۹۸۸-۲۰۱۹. For this purpose, by analyzing the theoretical and empirical foundations of social capital, three main components (crime-participation-awareness) and the associated social capital were considered for calculating the social capital index. Then, using the Mamdani fuzzy inference system and a fuzzy approach, the social capital index was estimated. A review of the trend of this index indicates that in the period under study until ۲۰۰۱, there has been significant growth so, in ۲۰۰۱, this index was estimated to be ۰.۶۷. However, from ۲۰۰۱ to ۲۰۱۹, there was a downward trend with different fluctuations, so in ۲۰۱۸, this index was examined at its lowest level during the period under study. One of the reasons for the decrease in social capital could be the increase in the crime rate due to the growing trend of migration from rural to urban areas. Furthermore, to more accurately evaluate the estimation of the social capital index, based on the methods of previous studies, the estimation of social capital was performed using the Dagum method. The results of this method showed that according to the status of input variables and determinants of social capital, fuzzy estimation has provided a more accurate and appropriate estimate of social capital.

Keywords:

Awareness , crime , Fuzzy logic , participation , Social capital