A Closer Look at the Nexus between Oil Price and Non-oil Revenue in Nigeria

This study investigates the effect of oil price variations on non-oil revenue performance in Nigeria, which, to our knowledge, has not received adequate empirical scrutiny. This issue is at the forefront of government policy plans, which seek to improve non-oil revenue inflows.  Utilizing a dynamic time series modeling approach to analyze data from ۲۰۱۰M۱ to ۲۰۲۰M۱۲, the findings reveal that oil price dampens non-oil revenue mobilization efforts in the short run but is positive in the long run. This indicates that the Dutch disease hypothesis holds in the short run but not in the long run. In addition, a depreciation of the exchange rate was found to improve non-oil revenue inflows. Robustness checks using disaggregated non-oil revenue: trade taxes (import duties and levies) and domestic taxes (value-added tax, corporate, and personal income tax) validate the findings. Therefore, policy measures aimed at building up domestic revenue are required to minimize oil revenue dependency.

Keywords:

Cointegration , Dutch Disease , Error Correction , Non-oil Revenue , Oil Price , Taxes