Non-communicable Disease-Related Sustainable Development Goals for ۶۶ Belt and Road Initiative Countries

Background  Since ۲۰۱۵, the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has measured progress in achieving healthrelated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) annually worldwide. Little is known about the status and attainment of indicators of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by ۶۵ countries from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China in ۲۰۱۳.Methods  Data from GBDs were used to estimate ۲۴ NCD-related SDG indicators in BRI countries from ۱۹۹۰ to ۲۰۱۷. Each indicator was scored from ۰ to ۱۰۰ to compare multiple indicators over the study period. The natural log of the annual change in each location and year and weighted annual rates of change were used to generate projections for ۲۰۳۰. National-level estimates were determined by socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles in BRI countries with more than ۱ million inhabitants.Results  In ۲۰۱۷, the median overall score of NCD-related SDG index for the ۶۶ BRI countries was ۶۰ points, ranging from ۲۹ points in Afghanistan to ۸۴ points in Israel. More than ۸۰% of countries achieved the SDG ۲۰۳۰ maternal mortality (MM) rate target in ۲۰۱۷, and the national skilled birth attendance rate was above ۹۹% in more than ۵۹% countries. However, none of the BRI countries achieved the goal for children’s overweight, modern methods of contraception, and universal health coverage. It was predicted that ۸۰.۴% of NCD-related SDG targets would be achieved in these countries by ۲۰۳۰. The overall score of NCD-related SDG index were positively associated with SDI quintiles.Conclusion  For many indicators, the achieved progress in many countries is less than the annual rate necessary to meet SDG targets, indicating that substantial efforts need to be made in the coming years. Progress should be accelerated through collaborations between countries, implementation of NCD prevention and control strategies, and monitoring of inequalities in NCD-related SDGs within populations.

Keywords:

Non-communicable Disease , Sustainable Development Goals , Belt and Road Initiative , Burden of Disease Study