The Prognostic Factors Affecting the Survival of Kurdistan Province COVID-۱۹ Patients: A Cross-sectional Study From February to May ۲۰۲۰

BackgroundCoronavirus disease ۲۰۱۹ (COVID-۱۹) is a new viral disease and in a short period of time, the world has been affected in various economic, social, and health aspects. This disease has a high rate of transmission and mortality. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the survival of COVID-۱۹ patients in Kurdistan province. MethodsIn this retrospective study, the data including demographic features and the patient’s clinical background in terms of co-morbidities such as diabetes, cancer, chronic lung disease (CLD), coronary heart disease (CHD), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and weak immune system (WIS) were extracted from electronic medical records. We use Cox’s regression proportional hazard (PH) to model. ResultsIn this study, out of ۱۸۳۱ patients, ۱۰۱۹ were males (۵۵.۷%) and ۸۱۲ were females (۴۴.۳%) with an average age of ۵۲.۷۴ ± ۲۲.۱۶ years. For survival analysis, data from people infected with COVID-۱۹ who died or were still being treated were used. According to Cox’s regression analysis, age variables (hazard ratio [HR]: ۱.۰۳, CI: ۱.۰۲-۱.۰۴), patients with a history of diabetes (HR: ۲.۱۶, CI: ۱.۳۸-۳.۳۸), cancer (HR: ۳.۵۷, CI: ۱.۸۲-۷.۰۲), CLD (HR: ۲.۲۱, CI: ۱.۲۲-۴) and CHD (HR: ۲.۲۰, CI: ۱.۵۷-۳.۰۹) were significant and affected the hazard of death in patients with COVID-۱۹ and assuming that the other variables in the model are constant, the hazard of death increases by ۳% by increasing one unit (year), and the hazard of death in COVID-۱۹ patients with CHD, diabetes, cancer, CLD is ۲.۱۶, ۳.۵۷, ۲.۲ and ۲.۲۱, respectively. ConclusionAccording to findings, it is necessary to evaluate the prevalence of COVID-۱۹ in patients with CLD, diabetes, cancer, CHD, and elder, as patients with these characteristics may face a greater risk of death. Therefore, we suggest that elders and people with those underlying illnesses need to be under active surveillance and screened frequently.

Keywords:

COVID-۱۹ , Chronic Lung Disease , Chronic Kidney Disease , Coronary Heart Disease , Cox Proportional Hazard