Estimating COVID-۱۹-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios

BackgroundIran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease ۲۰۱۹ (COVID-۱۹) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-۱۹ related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios.MethodsWe developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-۱۹ pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: ۰% isolation, through E: ۴۰% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the ۹۵% uncertainty intervals (UIs). ResultsUnder scenario A, we estimated ۵ ۱۹۶ ۰۰۰ (UI ۱ ۷۵۳ ۰۰۰-۱۰ ۲۲۰ ۰۰۰) infections to happen till mid-June with ۹۶۶ ۰۰۰ (UI ۴۶۷ ۸۰۰-۱ ۷۰۲ ۰۰۰) hospitalizations and ۱۱۱ ۰۰۰ (UI ۵۳ ۴۰۰-۲۰۰ ۰۰۰) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by ۹۰% (ie, ۵۵۰ ۰۰۰) and change the epidemic peak from ۶۶ ۰۰۰ on June ۹, to ۹۴۰۰ on March ۱, ۲۰۲۰. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by ۹۲% (ie, ۷۴ ۵۰۰), and deaths by ۹۳% (ie, ۷۸۰۰).ConclusionWith no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of ۴۰% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-۱۹ in Iran by ۹۰% by mid-June.

Keywords:

COVID-۱۹ , Modeling , Physical Distancing , Isolation , Iran