Research Article: Predict the effects of climate change on primary production and vulnerability of fisheries species in coastal waters of the northern Persian Gulf

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of predicted climate changes on primary production and vulnerability of fish species in coastal waters of the northern Persian Gulf. Remote sensing data including chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature (SST) through using MODIS sensor images of the Terra satellite were obtained from the Google Earth Engine system. Net primary production per day was estimated through the VGPM model from the NASA Oceanographic Database (۲۰۰۰-۲۰۲۲). To predict climate change in The LARS-WG microscale model that is compared and evaluated under three scenarios RCP۲.۶, RCP۴.۵, and RCP۸.۵ during ۲۰۲۰-۲۰۸۰. These scenarios predict an increase in the average annual temperature rise of ۲.۴ to ۵.۳°C for the future of the region. It showed the inverse correlation between SST and chlorophyll a, and a direct correlation between primary production rate and marine trophic index. The annual comparison of total commercial fisheries catches shows that fish catch will decrease by ۱۶۹, ۱۸۵, and ۳۸۶ kg in the RCP ۲.۶, ۴.۵, and ۸.۵ scenarios, respectively. Correlation of the target species from the total catch with primary production shows that demersal fish species such as Pomadasys kaakan, Glaucostegus granulatus, Otolithes ruber, Atule mate and large pelagic such as Planiliza subviridis, Auxis thazard, Tenualosa ilisha, Thunnus tonggol and small pelagic such as Liza klunzingeri species and also jellyfish group express a positive relationship which is an indication of increased vulnerability to climate changes compared to other fish species.

Keywords:

Climate change , Lars-wg , SST , Chlorophyll a , Primary production , Persian Gulf