A System Dynamics Approach to Evaluating Tehran’s Urban Environmental Sustainability

Urban centers face mounting challenges from rapid population growth and urban expansion, requiring advanced tools to address sustainability issues across economic, environmental, and social dimensions. This study employs a system dynamics approach, guided by the United for Smart and Sustainable Cities (U۴SSC) framework, to assess Tehran's environmental sustainability through key performance indicators. The proposed system dynamics model integrates qualitative and quantitative factors, simulating interactions within Tehran’s urban system. Validation over a ۱۷-year period (۲۰۰۶–۲۰۲۲) confirms its reliability in analyzing trends and projecting future dynamics. Scenario and policy testing align with Iran’s Seventh National Development Plan (۲۰۲۳–۲۰۲۷) and Tehran’s Fourth Plan for Progress and Transformation (۲۰۲۲–۲۰۲۵), providing a ۱۴-year outlook (۲۰۲۳–۲۰۳۶). Simulations reveal that the Development of Recycling Industries is the most effective single policy, followed by Water Management and Efficiency and Greenbelt Expansion. However, integrated scenarios, combining multiple strategies, deliver the highest sustainability gains. These results underscore the importance of holistic, multidimensional approaches to address complex urban challenges effectively. This study highlights the value of system dynamics for urban sustainability analysis, offering actionable insights for policymakers while advancing the understanding of adaptive urban systems.

Keywords:

Urban Environmental Sustainability , U۴SSC Framework , System Dynamics , Policy Analysis , Tehran