Drought Assessment of Bandar Abbas County Using Meteorological Indices

Drought is a pervasive and increasingly frequent climatic hazard with profound implications for water resource availability, agriculture, and socioeconomic stability. Accurate assessment of drought patterns is crucial, particularly in arid regions such as Bandar Abbas County in southern Iran, where precipitation is scarce and erratic. This study evaluates meteorological drought conditions in Bandar Abbas over a ۴۲-year period (۱۹۸۳-۲۰۲۴) using two widely applied statistical indices: the Decile Index (DI) and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI). These indices were selected for their ease of application and relevance to short- and long-term drought analysis in data-limited regions. Annual precipitation data from Bandar Abbas synoptic station reveal high interannual variability, with a mean of ۱۵۴.۲۴ mm and a standard deviation of ۱۱۳.۳۲ mm. Analysis using DI indicates that ۴۰.۴% of the years fall within drought categories, while an equal proportion were classified as wet. RAI, which provides a more sensitive and continuous measure of precipitation anomalies, identified ۶۲% of the years as experiencing below-average rainfall. Both indices consistently detected extreme drought years in ۲۰۱۶, ۲۰۱۸, and ۲۰۲۱, as well as extreme wet years such as ۱۹۹۶ and ۲۰۲۰. Notably, RAI offers greater precision in identifying drought severity and trends, highlighting a potential intensification of drought frequency in the post-۲۰۱۰ period, possibly driven by climate change. The comparative analysis underscores that while DI provides a straightforward categorical classification of drought conditions, RAI enables more nuanced temporal assessments. The combined application of these indices offers a comprehensive framework for monitoring drought dynamics. These findings can inform proactive drought mitigation strategies and enhance water resource planning in Bandar Abbas County and similar arid environments facing increasing climate variability.

Keywords:

Meteorological Drought , DI , RAI , Drought Monitoring , Bandar Abbas County