Analyzing and Modeling the Impacts of Tax Policies on Corporate Financial Behavior and Economic Performance

Background and Objective: Tax policies are a key tool with significant influence on the financial behavior and economic performance of listed companies. This research aimed to model the impact of tax rate, tax exemptions, and tax penalties on financial behavior (earnings management, capital structure, investment) and economic performance (profitability, sales growth, market value) of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange.Methodology: This descriptive-correlational study employed a quantitative approach. Data from ۵۰ listed companies for the period ۲۰۱۷ to ۲۰۲۳ were collected from sources such as the Codal database and the Iranian National Tax Administration. Data analysis was conducted using panel data regression with fixed effects and Eviews software. The stationarity of variables, Hausman test, heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity, and autocorrelation were examined and confirmed.Findings: The results showed that a high tax rate intensifies earnings management (β=۰.۲۲) and reduces investment (β=-۰.۳۲). In contrast, tax exemptions had a positive and significant impact on improving profitability (β=۰.۳۸), sales growth (β=۰.۳۴), and market value (β=۰.۳۲). Furthermore, tax penalties led to more conservative behavior in capital structure (β=۰.۲۴).Conclusion: The findings indicate the dual effects of tax policies; high tax rates and penalties increase opportunistic and conservative behaviors, while targeted exemptions can enhance the economic performance of companies. These results emphasize the necessity of designing an intelligent, targeted, and transparent tax system to guide the financial behavior of firms and improve macroeconomic indicators.

Keywords:

Tax Policies , Corporate Financial Behavior , Economic Performance , modelling