Modeling of the vulnerability of biomass energy sub-sector to climate change in Togo.

Biomass energy accounts for 80 % of total energy consumed in Togo. But its potential decreases exponentially as a result of population growth and the fact that the techniques of production and consumption are still archaic and climate change. The aim of this work is to contribute to the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the sub-sector of biomass energy in Togo by a modeling approach. Specifically, it is i) to study the evolution of the household demand for fuelwood and ii ) to analyze the vulnerability to climate change of sub-sector of biomass energy (mainly charcoal and firewood) in Togo. Demand scenarios of fuelwood were developed from the LEAP model. The vulnerability analysis is made by coupling the demands and the potential of fuelwood and by taking into account the parameters of climate change. At the end of this study, it appears that the fuelwood demands evolve exponentially and that the sector is vulnerable to future climate change. In addition, the potential of fuelwood is very deficient compared to the demand for years to come and will be exhausted before the year 2025. The current energy and forestry policies are far from fill this gap.

Keywords:

Scenario , Fuelwood demand , Fuelwood potential , Vulnerability , Togo