Developing System Dynamics Model for Assessing Restoration Plans in Water Management; Case study Urmia Lake, Iran

Finding management practices to achieve sustainable ecological status of the Urmia Lake is necessary. In this study, impact of different plans under climate change were assessed using system dynamics. Therefore firstly GCM models were downscaled by using LARS-WG model. The results indicated that the basin would get warmer from 2011-2030 and there will be an increasing trend in rainfall in autumn and winter, and a decreasing trend in spring and summer. Four restoration plans were considered separately and then simultaneously in VENSIM environment. The simulation results revealed that none of the single plans are suitable. Among the hybrid plans, increasing the efficiency of irrigation, changing crop patterns and reducing cultivated areas, was the most sustainable one. The results indicated that after 47 months from applying this plan, lake level will achieve the ecological level. This SD model can help watershed managers to take necessary measures to restore this ecosystem

Keywords:

System Dynamics , Climate Change , Modelling , Environmental Management , Urmia Lake