The development of the Composed Probability Model to Estimate the rate of household Trip production (case study of Karaj city)

The purpose study, is proposing a more flexible model comparing to regression linear model, to estimate the rate of household trip production and its prediction in the project horizon. For this purpose , a combined model composed of Poisson distribution and the possible distribution of ?? in the form of negative binominal distribution has been used. Then the proposed model was conducted on a real case (Karaj City). The result of model processing was then compared to the real observation in the peak hours in Karaj city. Resilts shows that the new proposed composed probability model have more flexibility and high maneuvering power also more validity prediction of household trip production rate in comparing with the linear distribution and regression model.

Keywords:

Auto ownership Household income , Household size , Linear regression distributioin , Negative binomial distribution , Peak hour , Poisson distribution , Socio-Economic , Trip household production