Simulation of malaria spreading using an agent-based model: Applying environmental factors

Malaria is currently considered as one of the major health problems due to its spread, incidence rate, and mortality. The spread of malaria is a complex phenomenon that is affected by many factors, especially environmental factors. Agent-based modelling is a new approach in the field of complex phenomena modelling so that simulates phenomena with the help of agents, the environment, as well as considering interactions between agents and also agents with the environment according to reality. The main objective of this paper is to simulate the spread of malaria by using an agent-based model (ABM) in which the effects of environmental factors are considered. The process of doing this paper was carried out in several steps: first, several analyses were performed on each environmental factor of air temperature, relative humidity, land vegetation, altitude, and distance from water sources. Next, the implementation of the proposed ABM was explicitly explained. Then, the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) model was described. After that, the calculation of malaria-transmission probability was explained, and finally, the assumptions considered in the model were expressed as well as the calibration and validation of the proposed ABM. The results of the model demonstrated the great potential of ABM in simulating the spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Regarding the results of this research, agent-based modelling, as a robust approach in predicting malaria spreading, can assist health policymakers in designing health-related policies.