Ranking of GMPEs for Seismic Hazard Analysis in Iran Using LH, LLH and EDR Approaches

One of the most critical steps of seismic hazard and risk analysis is selecting the appropriate GMPEs to address strong ground motion based on earthquakeparameters. In fact, appropriate modeling of this epistemic source of uncertainty in analysis is a non-trivial approach that is an active area of research. From statistical point of view, this issue can be resolved by measuring the good-of-fit, which describes how well a model fits a set of observations. In this study, the suitability of a set of local, regional and global GMPEs based on the three approaches of LH, LLH and EDR for two distinct seismotectonic regions of Iran have been assessed. Analyses show general compatibility between the order of ranking in both approaches of LH and LLH while the order of ranking in EDR approach shows significant differences. This contradiction come from their conceptual differences, in which the approaches like LH and LLH the overall performance of a model is assessed in an index and the individual effect of other parameters are not examined.

Keywords:

Seismic Hazard , Risk Analysis , Ranking of GMPEs , Seismotectonic regions , Iran , LH and LLH methods , EDR index