Joint Logit Model Approach to Analyze Soccer Spectators’ Arrival Time and Location Preferences for Interim Activities in Istanbul

Planned Special Event (PSE) is a public activity that has a defined location and time and has an influence on transportation system operations as a consequence of increases in travel demand or decreases in road capacity. Apart from the event itself, PSEs might generate additional activities based on location, time and duration of the event, and individual preferences. This paper focuses on the interim activities of soccer spectators in Istanbul. This paper is motivated by the mostly disregarded but significantly important demand for these activities by jointly analyzing the arrival time and location preferences for the interim activities carried out before the main activity. For this aim, a joint logit model capturing the factors influencing the arrival time and location choice collectively within the PSE circumstances is estimated. In this estimation, each trip and behavior of spectator groups are modeled separately. According to the results of the models, one significant and interesting finding is the behavioral differences of supporters of different teams which is mostly influenced by the activity opportunities present in the surrounding of the venues. Last motorized trips of the Besiktas and Fenerbahce’s spectators end at the sub-centers in general, while the spectators of the Galatasaray prefer the stadium as their final destination. Moreover, league matches being on weekdays or weekends does not have a statistically significant effect on the choice of arrival time and location of the spectators. The findings provide useful information that might assist event organizers and decision-makers especially in planning special events.

Keywords:

Planned Special Event , Interim activity , Joint modelling , Multinomial Logit Model , Choice Model , Arrival time