DAMP: Decision-Making with the Combination of Analytical Hierarchy Process and Deep Learning (Case study: Car Sales Forecasting)

Nowadays, prediction and decision making are two inseparable principles in the management and two distinct roles of managers. The organizations spend a large part of their budgets on predictions from past data. They will lose their money if they are neglected. On the other hand, decision-making is the most critical step in problem-solving. Moreover, it is considered the main task of a manager as a problem solver. Making decision becomes more complicated when we are faced with multi-criteria decision-making issues. Combining prediction and decision-making approaches helps researchers to make a better choice utilizing prior knowledge. One of the most essential and comprehensive systems designed for multi-criteria decision-making is Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) process. Deep learning as a valuable extension of artificial neural networks has been the focus of many researchers. In this paper, AHP is used to classify, compare, and determine the weights of a deep learning approach. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed method, the prediction of vehicle price application is chosen, and the results are compared with neural networks. The data set is related to the sale of Hyundai and Kia Motors cars in the United States and Canada. It is emphasized that the data are used only to evaluate the proposed method and can be generalized to solve all similar issues. The sales forecasting data of two car companies showed that the proposed method is superior to other regression methods. To extend the proposed methos as our future work, the aim will be to develop a comprehensive decision-making and forecasting system by combining these two approaches.

Keywords:

Analytical Hierarchy Process , deep Learning , Decision making , Regression