Earthquake prediction by analyzing electromagnetic precursors Case study: ۶.۲-Magnitude Lazio Earthquake, Italy ۲۰۱۶

Earthquake is one of the natural disasters that might inflict serious casualties and financial losses. The earthquake occurrence is inevitable and it is expected to occur anywhere on the Earth even in the oceans. It is more than a hundred years that the researchers have been investigating on earthquake prediction before it occurs as well as on minimization of the casualties and financial losses. The electromagnetic component is one of the most important precursor by which the changes in the Earth magnetic field are measured. In this study, the changes in the geomagnetic field components before an earthquake occurrence has been investigated. The datasets used in this study have been recorded in Duronia, Lampedusa, and Castello Tesino geomagnetic observatories, available online at National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). Variations of magnetic field components were analyzed before the ۶.۲-magnitude earthquake occurred in Italy on ۲۴-th August ۲۰۱۶. The results showed anomalous changes in the geomagnetic field components before the earthquake. These changes had been observed about three hours before the earthquake and had been continued up to next day. Analysis of the data in the frequency domain showed that the variations have been occurred in the Ultra-low frequency (ULF) range. Consistent trends observed in the datasets of three observatories could be an indication of proper operation of the instruments and adequate accuracy of the datasets. The index Kp, showed calm geomagnetic days for the period of changes which might be caused by the earthquake. Therefore, the short-time variations observed before the earthquake might be correlated to the earthquake activity. The geomagnetic field variations within the ULF range can be interesting to be more investigated as one of the earthquake precursors.

Keywords:

Earthquake , Precursor , field components , geomagnetic observatories , Ultra-low frequency.