Discovering and Recovering the Changes in Land Use and Land Cover Using Remote Sensing and GIS (Case Study Heev Village, Alborz Province)

Detecting changes is one of the basic needs in the management and evaluation of natural resources. Modeling the process of land cover changes over time using multi- time data in the GIS environment can act as one of the most important factors in managing the mentioned changes. In order to modeling the process of land cover changes and to investigating the possibility of predicting it in the future, land change modeling (lcm) has been used.  Therefore, the Landsat TM۵ analyzer data of Heev village in Alborz province for the years ۱۹۸۵T ۲۰۰۰ and ۲۰۱۱ were analyzed. Next, using the maximum similarity method, land cover maps of each image for the mentioned years, was extracted and categorized into five layers of vegetation, city, asphalt, barren lands (soil) and rocks and cliffs. The extracted accuracy evaluation coefficients (overall accuracy and kappa coefficient) indicate the high accuracy of this classification method. The analysis of the results obtained from the studies conducted on the two periods of ۱۹۸۵-۲۰۰۰ and ۲۰۰۰-۲۰۱۱ shows an increase in urban construction with a decrease in vegetation, and even in some areas, the disappearance of vegetation, while the village is expanding towards the mountainside. Using the combination of Markov model and automatic cell maps land use prediction maps for the next ۱۶ years were obtained, while the kappa coefficient was used to determine the prediction compliance, and comparing them with the actual map

Keywords:

LCM , Markov chain , Automated Cells , Kappa coefficient