Uncertainty analysis of tourism components in Tabriz

Purpose: Predicting the profitability of the tourism industry is always faced withuncertainties. Especially in the last two years, when the global pandemicconditions have added to it. The purpose of this study is to investigate andanalyze the uncertainties in the components affecting tourism in Tabriz.Methodology: In addition to library studies, interviews with experts andprofessors in the field of tourism have been conducted in order to identify thecomponents affecting tourism. Input factors in four areas of strategic planning,tourism potentials, regional conditions and infrastructure facilities and effectiveconsequences on the problem in two economic areas and tourism consequencesare categorized. Then, to explain the uncertainty of the obtained components, afuzzy system is designed in MATLAB software. The system is based on an ifthenrule approach with ۸۴ rules that determine the relationship between inputand output variables.Findings: Our findings from the fuzzy system model show that following thecurrent situation, the tourism outcome of Tabriz will be normal and itseconomic consequences for the city of Tabriz will be inappropriate due to itshistorical and economic history. Also, changes in regional conditions and urbanpotentials do not cause much change in the tourism situation. The results of themodel show that simply paying attention to the plan and infrastructure withoutconsidering other conditions does not create a suitable situation for tourism.That is, plans and infrastructure should serve the better development of urbanplaces and potentials and the proper bedding of regional conditions.Originality/Value: Despite several years of capital and commercial center ofIran and high capabilities, Tabriz has not been able to achieve a good positionin the Iranian tourism industry. Some of these factors are related to theuncertainty in plans and policies, etc. This article with this approach is aninnovation in explaining the tourism conditions of Tabriz.

Keywords:

Tourism , Fuzzy system , Uncertainty , Tabriz