Modeling and predicting trends of heat stress based on climate change phenomenon: A case study in a semi-arid climate

Publish Year: 1401
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: English
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JR_EHEM-9-4_010

تاریخ نمایه سازی: 11 دی 1401

Abstract:

Background: Climate change is one of the most complex human challenges in the future. One of the consequences of climate change is the exposure of people to heat stress, especially in the outdoor environments. The aim of this study was to model the changes in the trend of exposure to heat stress in outdoor environments in the coming decades in the context of climate change and global warming. Methods: The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index, Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM۲), and the Statistical Down Scaling Model (SDSM) were used in a semi-arid climate. In this study, Arak station was considered as a representative of Iran’s semi-arid climate. In this research, the daily data of the minimum and maximum temperatures, humidity, and WBGT index were used from ۲۰۱۱ to ۲۰۹۹. Results: The minimum and maximum air temperatures in the study station show an increasing trend in three time periods. Also, based on the three studied scenarios, air temperature and WBGT index have an upward and positive trend and relative humidity has a downward and negative trend in the coming decades. Conclusion: In general, increasing the exposure of people to heat stress at the study station in the coming decades and based on the simulations of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), will not be unexpected.

Authors

Mehdi Asghari

Department of Occupational Health and Safety Engineering, School of Public Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran

Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari

Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Khorasan-Razavi, Iran

Hamidreza Heidari

Environmental Health Research Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran

Rahmatollah Moradzadeh

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran

Sadegh Samadi

Department of Occupational Health and Safety Engineering, School of Public Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran

Reza Tajik

Department of Occupational Health and Safety Engineering, School of Public Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran

Mohammadjavad Ghanadzadeh

Corresponding author: Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran

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