Modeling the effect of quarantine and hospitalization on the spread of COVID-۱۹ during the toughest period of the pandemic

    The year ۲۰۲۰ arrives with COVID-۱۹. The pandemic poses a formidable threat to human existence at onset but is fought with various measures of which quarantine and hospitalization play a key role. In this article, a COVID-۱۹ transmission mathematical model is developed to assess how quarantine and hospitalization aid improvement in the recovery of both asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals during the toughest period of the pandemic in the year ۲۰۲۰. The basic properties of the model in terms of positivity and boundedness of solutions are discussed based on some ample mathematics theorems. The control reproductive ratio is derived using the next generation matrix approach and the local and global stabilities are investigated via stability theory of differential equations, which depend on the size of the derived control reproductive ratio. Numerical simulation is performed to confirm the analytical results. Findings from the simulation show that quarantine and hospitalization are helpful in averting imminent destruction posed by the pandemic in the years ۲۰۲۰ and early ۲۰۲۱ by reducing both  COVID-۱۹ transmission and mortality.

Keywords:

Covid-۱۹ , quarantine , hospitalization , model , reproductive ratio