EARTHQUAKE LOSS RISK ANALYSIS FOR IRAN BASED ON MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Iran has experienced some of the most devastating earthquakes during the last centuries. To reduce deaths and economic loss from earthquakes in the country, it is important to understand where critical-risk areas of high population density and high seismic hazard intersect. Current research applies a method of earthquake loss risk analysis based on a macroscopic index of exposure and population at each province of the country. This study assumes that earthquake loss comprises of the hazard, the exposure and vulnerability. The hazard refers to the frequency and severity of the earthquake. The exposure describes the people, property, and systems of functions at risk of loss when exposed to earthquake. Finally, the vulnerability refers to susceptibility to losses due to the exposure to the earthquake. A loss study may include estimation of deaths, injuries, property loss, industry loss, lifelines, emergencies, homelessness and other economic impacts. Instead of the traditional detailed loss estimation methods, this study uses Iran’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as a macroscopic indicator to describe the total exposure. Based on the developed idea by Chan et al. (1998), GDP refers to newly created wealth, which measures the total output of goods and services for final use occurring within the domestic territory of the country, regardless of the allocation to domestic and foreign claims. The method combines seismic hazard, GDP, population data, unemployment ratio, published earthquake loss data and the relationship between GDP and known seismic loss, to estimate risk of earthquake loss. The results of this loss risk analysis show estimated earthquake loss for each province around the country. These results will be compared with other earthquake loss reports that were produced using more traditional loss estimation methodologies.